Tatton Asset Management – Encouraging kick-off

2018 has started on a positive note. Despite widespread fears for capital market upset through the coming into force of MiFID II on January 3rd, all remained calm and equity markets started with a positive week. This latest round of regulatory tightening across the EU’s securities markets, will have some longer-term effects that may only become apparent further down the line. To create some clarity what it might mean for private investors, we have dedicated an article to MiFID this week.

Compared to the start of 2017, many market influencing aspects appear much less uncertain than they did a year ago. Synchronised global economic growth has become sustained and industrial growth hit a multi-year high at the end of 2017. This week’s release of very encouraging business sentiment figures from around the world for December are evidence for this. The political perspective remains somewhat unnerving, but almost one year into the Trump US presidency the world is a lot less unnerved by his tweets as we have learned that he remains more show than achievement.

The button size bragging episode between North Korea’s Rocket Man Kim and US’ Tweet Trump would in the past have seriously increased the temperature of global geopolitical tensions. Now, there is more amusement and some head shaking, while the focus quickly shift to the more significant re-opening of the dialogue lines between North and South Korea.

The focus of commodity markets was on the widespread public protests across Iran, where the Ayatollahs for the first time appeared to fear to be overrun by the same revolutionary dynamics that 40 years ago got themselves into power. The acceleration in oil and other commodity prices was supposedly a result of this new source of uncertainty. We reflect in two separate articles on the changing geopolitical environment and the seeming revival of the commodity price rally. At the moment, we cannot get overly excited about either, although the developments in Iran could lead to a constructive strengthening of moderate, secular forces.

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