Thus far the World Cup has confounded the experts during so many games. This week we consider whether there might be some lessons for investment from such events.
Having seen many of the large, historically successful countries fall to supposedly weaker opponents, the lesson for us is to carefully consider all possible outcomes rather than apply a high degree of certainty to your preferred or expected outcome. The odds of an underdog winning a football match are much higher than we believe, just like the chances of an investment view coming right precisely as you expect are much less than your instincts lead you to believe. We are living in a world of uncertainty where luck (football?) or randomness (investment?) plays a much higher role than we would want to think. Its better to allow for a range of scenarios in your portfolio than to have excessive confidence in a small number of imprecise predictions.
Gresham House Strategic PLC (LON:GHS) has a 4.7% ownership of Miton Group, correct as of 31 January 2018 month end NAV announcement, released 1 February 2018.
