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Kremlin will seek to avoid military responses to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and ongoing unrest in Belarus

Predictions

  • Kremlin will seek to avoid military responses to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and ongoing unrest in Belarus, expanding influence instead through diplomatic and economic efforts
  • Moscow will seek to assume mediator role in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, although will risk becoming embroiled in conflict should Turkey step up military support for Azerbaijan
  • Moscow will continue to provide political and economic support to Belarusian president, although will look to promote alternative candidate who will maintain geopolitical norms should Lukashenko’s position become untenable

Event

Russia’s foreign ministry confirmed on 2 October that Belarus’ list of sanctioned EU officials will automatically apply in Russia, and said that it considered EU sanctions targeting approximately 40 Belarusian officials for their involvement in rigging August presidential elections “open and unacceptable pressure on the Belarusian authorities”. 

Falanx Assynt is a global intelligence consultancy and leading provider of geopolitical, strategic and business risk analysis since 2003. Falanx Assynt is part of Falanx Group Ltd (LON:FLX) which, through its subsidiaries, provides cyber defence and intelligence services to blue chip and government clients worldwide.

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Disclaimer: Statements in this article should not be considered investment advice, which is best sought directly from a qualified professional.