Frontier Markets Semi-Annual Outlook

Make Goods, Not War

The global economy has performed well so far this year despite numerous headwinds, ranging from tightening liquidity conditions to rising trade tensions. This is partly due to still loose policy settings in major economies, as indicated by negative real policy rates. As a result, it is more likely that a shock of some sort would be required to derail momentum. Global growth this year
is projected to maintain the 2017 pace of 3.7% yoy, with estimates not much changed since trade tensions began to rise. Frontier markets (FM) are expected to benefit from this benign backdrop,
with GDP growth of key FMs projected to accelerate to 4.0% this year from 3.2% in 2017. Within FM, there is significant variation, ranging from healthy and accelerating growth in countries like
Vietnam and Kuwait to a potential recession in Argentina on the back of financial instability.

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