The week has, yet again, felt tumultuous. The government’s Brexit strategy has been halted in its tracks by a miscalculation of the official opposition and internal Conservative Party opposition. Many commentators were also confounded, and we would count ourselves among them. One can see evidence of the upset when looking at the probability of an October election – Betfair has reduced the chance of an election to 35% from over 80% when Boris Johnson became leader. Choppy political waters indeed.
From the first Brexit delay, we had thought that the most probable path was that the Conservative party would put in a pro-Brexit leader. If the party regained the approval of the voters that had defected to the Brexit party, then the Conservative leadership would reinforce the pro-Brexit line-up of MPs, firstly though strong-arm internal tactics, and ultimately though an election where the softer elements were suborned or removed.
The miscalculation has been that the improvement in Conservative popularity has undermined Labour’s reasons for wanting an election, and that the election timetable is not now in the control of the government.
