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Arrest of Russian mercenaries in Belarus will be intended to discredit opposition

Predictions

  • Arrest of Russian mercenaries in Belarus will be intended by President Lukashenko as means to discredit opposition and crack down on protests
  • Russia highly unlikely to seek Lukashenko’s removal at this time due to concerns over potential advancement of Western influence in Belarus
  • Kremlin’s influence over Minsk set to grow as likely crackdown after 9 August election will hinder Minsk’s ability to forge closer relations with West

Event

Belarusian authorities arrested 33 Russian mercenaries belonging to the private military company Wagner Group, which has close ties to Russia’s defence ministry, on 29 July.

Falanx Assynt is a global intelligence consultancy and leading provider of geopolitical, strategic and business risk analysis since 2003. Falanx Assynt is part of Falanx Group Ltd (LON:FLX) which, through its subsidiaries, provides cyber defence and intelligence services to blue chip and government clients worldwide.

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